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Epi Canary — Epidemic IntelligenceEvidence-led epidemic intelligence. Source-attributed evidence.
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Public note

For situational awareness and research transparency. Not medical advice.

Novel Pathogen Detectionresolved

Autochthonous dengue transmission will be reported in at least 2 Southern European countries during the 2026 season.

System-generated assessment. This assessment remains under review until the stated horizon or until sufficient evidence allows evaluation.

Moderate confidence

Confidence in this assessment
50%

The evidence is meaningful, but there is still material uncertainty. Based on 1 linked evidence item and assessed against Oct 31, 2026.

Assessed through Oct 31, 2026·1 linked evidence item·Tracking since Apr 12, 2026

02

How this assessment will be evaluated

The criteria the system uses to determine whether this assessment is borne out by the stated horizon.

Automated

Method

Evidence Match

The condition the system checks for when evaluating this assessment.

Minimum source quality

T1Primary Institutional

Evidence must meet or exceed this credibility tier to count toward evaluation.

Required terms

autochthonoustransmissioncountriesreported

Outcome

Apr 12, 2026
Observed by horizonReliability score (Brier): 0.300

Resolved with score 0.3

T2·Unknown

03

Evidence quality mix

Tracking since Apr 12, 2026.

T21
▸Integrity referencesCryptographic hashes for verification

Registration

Resolution signature

06

Scope synthesis

The current analyst narrative for this scope.

Open synthesis →

Hong Kong confirms its first locally acquired dengue case of 2026 while simultaneous chikungunya surges in La Réunion (47,000+ cases), Spain, and Mauritius signal a coordinated multi-region Aedes vector season onset.

07

Evidence linked to this assessment

1 linked item.

DENGUE - BANGLADESH (08): UPDATE. Health officials reported 25 new dengue cases in the last 24 h

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 2 tracked assessments.

25 cases

T2https://www.promedmail.org/?alert=8732382supports
Apr 22, 2026

Integrity anchor

Brier 0.202

19 resolved novel pathogen detection predictions.