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Epi Canary — Epidemic IntelligenceEvidence-led epidemic intelligence. Source-attributed evidence.
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Public note

For situational awareness and research transparency. Not medical advice.

Novel Pathogen Detectionactive

Oropouche virus will cause ≥1,000 confirmed cases in a country outside Brazil/Bolivia in the 2026 Americas arbovirus season (April–December 2026), based on 11,634 confirmed multi-country cases by Nov 2024 and WHO confirmation that the 2026 season is now beginning.

System-generated assessment. This assessment remains under review until the stated horizon or until sufficient evidence allows evaluation.

Moderate confidence

Confidence in this assessment
50%

The evidence is meaningful, but there is still material uncertainty. Based on 1 linked evidence item and assessed against 180D.

Assessed through 180D·1 linked evidence item·Tracking since Apr 18, 2026

02

How this assessment will be evaluated

The criteria the system uses to determine whether this assessment is borne out by the stated horizon.

Automated

Method

Evidence Match

The condition the system checks for when evaluating this assessment.

Minimum source quality

T1Primary Institutional

Evidence must meet or exceed this credibility tier to count toward evaluation.

Required terms

multi-countryconfirmationoropoucheconfirmed

03

Evidence quality mix

Tracking since Apr 18, 2026.

T11
▸Integrity referencesCryptographic hashes for verification

Registration

06

Scope synthesis

The current analyst narrative for this scope.

Open synthesis →

Hong Kong confirms first locally acquired dengue case of 2026 vector season; multi-region simultaneous chikungunya escalation gaining strength with La Réunion, Spain, Mauritius, and Guangzhou epidemic modeling data.

07

Evidence linked to this assessment

1 linked item.

Oropouche virus disease - Region of the Americas. As the arbovirus season is starting in the reg

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 2 tracked assessments.

T1https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2024-DON545supports
Apr 17, 2026

Integrity anchor

Brier 0.202

19 resolved novel pathogen detection predictions.